Oil Could Top $80 if Iran-US Conflict Escalates, Energy Expert Warns

Growing military tensions between Iran and the United States in and around the Strait of Hormuz could push global oil prices above $80 per barrel if the conflict escalates, particularly if shipping or energy infrastructure is disrupted, according to an energy expert. Umud Shokri, an energy specialist and senior research scholar at George Mason University, told Al Jazeera on Sunday, July 12, that financial markets are increasingly pricing geopolitical risks into crude oil as military exchanges continue in the Gulf. Shokri said traders are likely to assign a higher geopolitical risk premium to Brent crude if hostilities persist. He added that the greatest risk to global energy markets would arise if fighting disrupts tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz or damages oil production and export facilities in the region. “If the conflict escalates further, Brent crude could rise above $80 per barrel,” Shokri said, according to Al Jazeera. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints, carrying roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption. Any prolonged disruption to shipping through the narrow waterway could reduce supplies and drive fuel prices higher worldwide. Shokri said oil prices are also likely to remain elevated as long as investors view any ceasefire or diplomatic understanding between Washington and Tehran as fragile. He noted that markets respond not only to ongoing military operations but also to expectations of further escalation. However, he said the longer-term direction of oil prices will depend primarily on whether the conflict results in physical disruptions to oil production or exports. Political statements or temporary diplomatic breakthroughs alone are unlikely to stabilize markets if energy infrastructure or maritime trade is affected. The warning comes as tensions between Tehran and Washington continue to intensify following a series of military strikes and counterstrikes in the Gulf. Recent attacks involving commercial shipping and military facilities have heightened concerns over security in the Strait of Hormuz and the potential impact on global energy supplies. Although no major disruption to oil exports has been confirmed, governments, energy companies and financial markets continue to closely monitor developments amid concerns that a wider conflict could further tighten global crude supplies. The post Oil Could Top $80 if Iran-US Conflict Escalates, Energy Expert Warns appeared first on Khaama Press.